Major Severe Weather Outbreak Next Week Likely

Those who follow meteorologists on social media (James Spann comes to mind),  or pay attention to the SPC and NWS forecasts borderline religiously, or heck, have watched the Weather Channel at some point in the last 2 or 3 days are likely aware that things are starting to set up for a major severe weather outbreak. As I write, the SPC has yet to come out with its latest round of convective outlooks (Day 1 being 4/6/13), but as it stands, there is a chance of some storms on Sunday. On Monday, organized severe weather is expected to begin in west Kansas, with a good chance of tornadoes. The system will start moving east, affecting several major population centers in the Midwest, including Kansas City and Oklahoma City. Wednesday, the system will move farther east. The timing and how severe the modes of severe weather are is still a big question mark, even for Monday.

I would go as far as to say that it is likely that there will be at least 1 day of moderate risk during this event at the minimum. This is the first real major threat of severe weather to the United States since February, and if a moderate risk were to be issued, it would be the first since late January. For people unfamiliar with the percentages that the SPC uses in their daily outlooks, below is a table showing percentages for Day 1, 2, and 3 convective outlooks, correlating percentage with risk type and category. (Ex. 5%, Tornado, Slight Risk) These graphics plus a more detailed description for convective outlooks can be found here.