We Could Be Looking at Problems Soon

The Storm Prediction Center is already saying there is a chance of severe weather next Thursday.

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 150957
   SPC AC 150957
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2013
   
   VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DRYING NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A
   GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
   APPEARS LIKELY TO COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF
   SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS BEGIN TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE NATION. 
   AN INITIAL IMPULSE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ROCKIES LATE THIS COMING
   WEEKEND...APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   REGION TOO SOON...AND TOO FAR NORTH...FOR A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW
   OF MOISTURE TO DEVELOP AND CONTRIBUTE TO AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS HAVE
   BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SUGGESTING THAT THE
   STRONG UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
   BASIN...BEFORE LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
   MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEKEND.  AT THIS POINT...TIMING
   INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MORE FAVORABLE INLAND MOISTURE
   RETURN BEGINS TO OCCUR OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...DOES NOT
   APPEAR OPTIMAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.  BUT...BY THURSDAY...AT
   LEAST ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER HIGH-LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND
   MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...THERE APPEARS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD THAT
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZATION WILL BECOME FAVORABLY JUXTAPOSED TO SUPPORT THE RISK
   FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
   TORNADOES.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/15/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT