MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0280
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AL...WRN GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 53...
VALID 182157Z - 190000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 53 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS E-CNTRL AL WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY
EWD...MERGING WITH ONGOING SUPERCELLS ACROSS WRN GA. THE OVERALL
TORNADO RISK WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AN ENHANCED
RISK OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND DEVELOPING. A DOWNSTREAM SVR TSTM WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS SE GA.
DISCUSSION...LINE OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS E-CNTRL AL WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EWD WITH INCREASING ACCELERATION AS THE LINE DISCRETELY
PROPAGATES DUE TO MERGERS WITH ONGOING SUPERCELLS ACROSS WRN GA.
RADAR-BASED STORM MOTION ESTIMATES INDICATE THE LINE IS MOVING ESE
AT APPROXIMATELY 50 KTS. SVR WIND GUSTS WERE REPORTED AT ANB AND GAD
IN NW AL DURING THE LAST HOUR. DISCRETE CELLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
LINE BUT IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT TIME FOR ORGANIZATION AND SUBSEQUENT
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT MAY BE WANING DUE TO THE APPROACHING CONVECTIVE
LINE. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS AND MLCAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG. ALSO...GIVEN THE ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHEAR...TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH ANY MATURE DISCRETE STORM
OR SUPERCELL LINE MERGERS.
GIVEN THE CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...IT
APPEARS THE LINE WILL MOVE E OF THE WW 53 BETWEEN 23 AND 00Z. AS
SUCH...A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS
SE GA BEFORE 00Z.
..MOSIER.. 03/18/2013
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 31858669 34038638 34078338 33408219 31998185 31578429
31858669
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