Severe Thunderstorm Warning #61

This watch includes Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Gadsden, Montgomery, Auburn, and Troy.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #60

This includes Columbus, Tupelo, and Monroe.

Tornado Watch #59

This watch includes Jackson, Meridian, and Hattiesburg.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #58

This includes the cities of Hattiesburg, Montgomery, Mobile, and Tallahassee.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #57

This watch includes Jacksonville and Brunswick.

Severe Risk Today and Tomorrow

The risks today are relatively low, and the main area of concern would be up in northern Louisiana.

Tomorrow is looking more active over a larger area.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #56

This watch includes Austin, College Station, Junction, and the northern suburbs of San Antonio.

Listen to Severe Thunderstorm Warnings!

Yesterday, many people said that there were tornadoes in that straight line wind event, noting damage to the effect of some missing roofs, like at the Campus Inn apartments in Jacksonville, Alabama, and tons of downed trees and power lines. They also said that there was a loud roar, the trees were twisted, and they saw something that resembled a funnel. And yet, only 4 tornadoes have been confirmed, and none of them happened in Alabama. Many people are also saying that there was no warning. There was plenty of warning.  NWS Birmingham had 30-45 minute lead times on the storms yesterday. The problem seems to be that people who saw what appeared to be a tornado said that there was no warning. The truth: there was plenty of warning. There was just no Tornado Warnings because the storms weren't showing signs of strong rotation, which is very common in squall line events.

I'll leave James Spann to explain the rest, but the point is, listen to the Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #55

This watch includes Savannah and Statesboro.

Tornado Emergency: Concord, GA

There is extremely strong rotation west of Concord, GA. On the top in reflectivity, the storm is extremely wrapped up, and there is a debris ball on the storm. This is a Tornado Emergency for Concord, Georgia. TAKE COVER NOW!

New Tornado Watch Coming Soon

Mesoscale Discussion 280

< Previous MD

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0280 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0457 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AL...WRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 53... VALID 182157Z - 190000Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 53 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS E-CNTRL AL WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY EWD...MERGING WITH ONGOING SUPERCELLS ACROSS WRN GA. THE OVERALL TORNADO RISK WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND DEVELOPING. A DOWNSTREAM SVR TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS SE GA. DISCUSSION...LINE OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS E-CNTRL AL WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD WITH INCREASING ACCELERATION AS THE LINE DISCRETELY PROPAGATES DUE TO MERGERS WITH ONGOING SUPERCELLS ACROSS WRN GA. RADAR-BASED STORM MOTION ESTIMATES INDICATE THE LINE IS MOVING ESE AT APPROXIMATELY 50 KTS. SVR WIND GUSTS WERE REPORTED AT ANB AND GAD IN NW AL DURING THE LAST HOUR. DISCRETE CELLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE LINE BUT IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT TIME FOR ORGANIZATION AND SUBSEQUENT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT MAY BE WANING DUE TO THE APPROACHING CONVECTIVE LINE. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS AND MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. ALSO...GIVEN THE ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR...TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH ANY MATURE DISCRETE STORM OR SUPERCELL LINE MERGERS. GIVEN THE CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THE LINE WILL MOVE E OF THE WW 53 BETWEEN 23 AND 00Z. AS SUCH...A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS SE GA BEFORE 00Z. ..MOSIER.. 03/18/2013 ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 31858669 34038638 34078338 33408219 31998185 31578429 31858669

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #54

This watch includes areas between Hattiesburg and Montgomery.

More damage in Alabama. Much of it is straight line wind damage. This is from Rainbow City, AL. There was a public report of a tornado near here on Twitter, but this has not been confirmed.


This is some low clouds near Fort Payne, AL. This is where the one Tornado Warning in Alabama today was. Not sure if that is a tornado or not, but if nothing less, it's a wall cloud.

Tornado Watch #53

This watch includes Montgomery, Auburn, Columbus GA, Macon, and Atlanta. Some storms ahead of the squall line are forming in east Alabama, and although there are no Tornado Warnings, these storms could produce a tornado at any time.

Damage is now occurring as a result of the squall line in Tuscaloosa, and several of the ABC 33/40 Skycams are now down because the severe wind has been knocking out power across the western part of the state.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #52

The watch includes Jackson, Meridian, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Huntsville.


Some damage images. This was US45 near Tupelo, MS.


Nasty looking clouds associated with a thunderstorm near Hackleburg, AL. Did not produce a tornado from what I've heard, and there was no Tornado Warning on the storm.


Current Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are up for Limestone, Morgan, Lawrence, Marion, Walker, Winston, Fayette, Lamar, Pickens, and Tuscaloosa counties. Storms will continue to move southeast, and most people in the state of Alabama will get some rain today.

Today's Risks (Updated)

Tornado:


Wind:


Hail:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #51

This watch includes Huntsville, Muscle Shoals, Tupelo, Nashville, and Columbus, MS.

Today

Slight risk area includes Jackson, Tupelo, Tuscaloosa, Opelika, Nashville, Chattanooga, and Lexington among other places. The tornado risk looks very low, and the hatched "significant area" is for hail, not damaging wind.

Tornado:


Wind:
 

Hail:


Heads up, Alabama and Mississippi, you're looking at the possibility of gusty winds and one heck of a hail storm this afternoon.

Significant Risk Tomorrow

The hatched area of most severe weather is over central Alabama and Mississippi. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but there is a chance that the risk area over those areas will be upgraded to moderate.

Severe Weather Reminders

As severe weather season begins to wind up, here are some reminders on what to do if a warning is issued:

1. Have a way of getting the warning. This would include NOAA Weather Radio, a smartphone app, or, if available, through TV or Internet. Do not rely on the sirens, especially if you live in a place where there are no sirens! The sirens are meant to be a way of getting the warning out to people outside. 

 

Yes

Yes

Yes

Seriously. Don't.

Get into a room with no windows, on the lowest floor of your home, business, or apartment. Put a helmet on if you have any, or get a pillow or mattress to protect yourself from flying debris. It may sound crazy, but it works. 

If you are in a mobile home, make sure you have a plan to get to a nearby shelter. Many mobile home parks in the Midwest and South have large shelters available to house the park's residents. If your park does not have a shelter, make sure there is a nearby business or site-built home nearby to take shelter in. Why do this? Mobile homes are death traps in tornadoes. They'll go flying all over the place if they're so much as in the same trailer park an EF1 is coming through. So if you fall under a Tornado Warning, please, for the love of God get out!

If you are in a car, get off the road and get inside a business as soon as possible. More than likely, they will let you in. If this is not possible, then, I don't know what to say, really. There are four things you could do.

1. Get out and get into a ditch or low lying area

2. Stay in your car, stop, and 

3. Get under an overpass

4. Drive faster, and hope there's a way you can drive in a different direction from the tornado's path

Options 1-3 do not provide much shelter, and there's no way to know if you can out-drive a tornado. If I had to recommend one of these the most, I'd say start driving. Those people who drive into tornadoes on TV, like Reed Timmer, built cars specifically to withstand an EF0-EF2 type tornado. Your car probably wasn't built to withstand any kind of tornado, and, like mobile homes, will go flying if they are anywhere near even a weak tornado. So, I'd start driving away from it as fast as possible.

Stay safe this year, everyone!

-Josh

Monday

The SPC has now issued a slight risk of severe weather for Monday. While there is still uncertainty, the main risk area looks like north Alabama, middle Tennessee, and southeast Kentucky.

Severe Weather Update

The SPC feels that there is less risk of severe weather near the Virginia/North Carolina border, and have retracted the earlier slight risk forecast.


The Monday risk is still possible, and deserves some monitoring.

Severe Weather Returns

 A slight risk exists for tomorrow over parts of Virginia and North Carolina tomorrow.


On Monday, a more potent storm system is expected to move into the South, bringing more storms. The SPC has forecasted for severe storms on Monday accordingly.

While exact threats are not known for Monday, people living in areas such as Huntsville, Nashville, and Louisville do need to be aware of the threat on Monday.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #50

This watch includes Waco, Austin, and San Antonio.

Current Situation

The area in the dark pink in south Oklahoma and north Texas is the Severe Thunderstorm Watch. There appears to be the continued development of a massive line of thunderstorms that currently stretch from between OKC and Tulsa down to areas east of San Angelo, and that line will cross the I-35 corridor over the next few hours, moving into the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area in the next hour or two.

The storms in eastern Oklahoma are not severe, as the air is more stable in this area. The storms in the watch box have been severe all day, especially on the Texas side of the river, where earlier, Reed Timmer was tracking this line as it was developing near Bowie and Gainesville, Texas.

The risk of severe weather in Nebraska has more or less been thrown away, as temperatures have fallen into the mid 30s along the I-80 corridor.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #49

The other MD that was for the possibility of a watch in southern Nebraska did not result in a watch. This watch does include the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area.

Today's Severe Risk

The SPC has highlighted two areas of possible severe weather today. One of them is one that wasn't highlighted yesterday is in central Nebraska and north central Kansas. The previously forecasted area over central Texas and east Oklahoma is still being forecasted. There is a tornado chance in both areas, and the greater severe wind and hail threat is over Texas and Oklahoma. The surprising thing about the northern risk area is that the area is under a Blizzard Warning.

Experimental Impact Based Warnings

Some of you who live in Kansas and Missouri or who keep track of severe weather in the area may remember hearing the terms "catastrophic damage" in Tornado Warnings last year, after almost never hearing that kind of terminology in warnings in the past. If you don't, the NWS was experimenting with impact based warnings, that gave a description of possible damage and human impacts of the storm. (ex. "considerable damage"; "tornado...observed"; etc.) This was with the intent of pushing across the urgency of situations, improving the communication of this information, and allow the NWS to express a level of confidence in the potential impacts. This year, the NWS will expand this to include the entire Central Region service area, which consists of 38 of the NWS offices.

Click here for further info.

Also, I encourage people who are interested in becoming a storm spotter, check your local NWS website, as many offices are currently in the process of doing spotter classes in their coverage area or about to start.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #48

The watch includes Lubbock, Pampa, and Amarillo. Places around the Pampa area are also under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning until 9:45.

Again, I'm @Joshsoma on Twitter if you want to follow me. I do tweet severe weather info when I can.

Slight Risk Today

The SPC has issued a slight risk of severe weather over extreme east Alabama and northern Georgia for today. Risks aren't very high, but tornadoes and strong wind appear to be the main threats. This area is for areas mainly along the I-85 corridor between Auburn and Atlanta. Below is the tornado threat map.