BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 908 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY MAINE HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MAINE... * UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST * AT 846 PM EST...RIVER GAGE READINGS ON THE CARRABASSETT RIVER IN NORTH ANSON HAVE BEEN SHOWING VERY RAPID RISES IN THE LAST HOUR. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO AN ICE JAM IN PLACE OR A JAM THAT HAS RECENTLY BROKEN. FURTHER RAPID RISES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING NEAR THE CARRABASSET RIVER IN AND AROUND NORTH ANSON. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL HOW LONG THIS JAM WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OR HOW HIGH THE WATER WILL RISE. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO STAY ALERT
Thursday, January 31, 2013
Flash Flood Warning
Dangerous Cold
With the first severe weather outbreak of the new year gone, we will for now begin focusing on the winter weather for now. There are no significant winter storms on the way, however, we are dealing with extreme cold. Wind Chill Warnings are in effect for parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota for wind chills below -40 degrees. The warning includes St. Cloud, Minnesota, Watertown, South Dakota, and Minot, North Dakota. For areas around the warning, a Wind Chill Advisory is in effect for wind chills closer to -30 degrees. The advisory includes Fargo, Grand Forks, Bismarck, and Williston, North Dakota, Aberdeen, Brookings, Sioux Falls, and Mitchell, South Dakota, and Marshall, Brainerd, Bemidji, Moorhead, International Falls, Duluth, Hibbing, Rochester, and the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro area of Minnesota.
Other wind chill advisories are in effect for places like Iowa City, Sioux City, and Des Moines, Iowa, Milwaukee, Madison, and Green Bay, Wisconsin, and Rockford and Peoria, Illinois.
Just stay inside whenever possible if you fall under a Wind Chill Advisory or Warning, and if you do have to be outside, dress warmly and go inside for frequent breaks to get out of the cold. Frostbite and hypothermia are possible within minutes with these dangerous wind chills which could approach -50 in central North Dakota.
Other wind chill advisories are in effect for places like Iowa City, Sioux City, and Des Moines, Iowa, Milwaukee, Madison, and Green Bay, Wisconsin, and Rockford and Peoria, Illinois.
Just stay inside whenever possible if you fall under a Wind Chill Advisory or Warning, and if you do have to be outside, dress warmly and go inside for frequent breaks to get out of the cold. Frostbite and hypothermia are possible within minutes with these dangerous wind chills which could approach -50 in central North Dakota.
Final Storm Report Numbers For 1/30/13 and 3 Day Severe Outlook
As shown by the graphic above, only 7 tornadoes occurred yesterday, all north and east of the Atlanta area. However that could go up as several areas, including Addison Airport in Winston County, Alabama, received severe damage from possible tornadoes and straight line winds. ( See Josh's earlier post to learn more.)
NEXT 3 DAYS
I will never go beyond the 3 day severe storm outlook unless one of the days after that shows already a chance for severe storms.
Anyways, the SPC is not even forecasting thunderstorms for the next 3 days, so any precipitation will fall as light rain or snow. If anything changes, we will update you on the situation.
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Tornadoes, Damage, and Stuff
The first tornado from this outbreak that I know to have been caught on video (will check for more) happened earlier today in Adairsville, Georgia, north of Atlanta. The tornado caused nearly 100 cars to be overturned along I-75. Unfortunately, the tornado also claimed the life a man in a mobile home.
Back in Alabama, the Addison Airport in Winston county was almost completely destroyed by strong winds and a possible tornado earlier this morning. A slideshow of the damage pictures received by ABC 33/40 in Birmingham can be seen here. Significant damage has also been reported around Starkville, Mississippi from these storms.
Right now, Tornado Watch #21 is in effect for much of Georgia, and parts of the Carolinas and Alabama. The watch includes Dothan, AL, Columbus, GA, Greenville, SC, and Charlotte, NC. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #22 is in effect for parts of North Carolina and Virginia. This does not include Arlington, Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Richmond, or the Raleigh areas. This does include Roanoke, VA, and Danville, NC.
Back in Alabama, the Addison Airport in Winston county was almost completely destroyed by strong winds and a possible tornado earlier this morning. A slideshow of the damage pictures received by ABC 33/40 in Birmingham can be seen here. Significant damage has also been reported around Starkville, Mississippi from these storms.
Right now, Tornado Watch #21 is in effect for much of Georgia, and parts of the Carolinas and Alabama. The watch includes Dothan, AL, Columbus, GA, Greenville, SC, and Charlotte, NC. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #22 is in effect for parts of North Carolina and Virginia. This does not include Arlington, Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Richmond, or the Raleigh areas. This does include Roanoke, VA, and Danville, NC.
Afternoon Update
WHAT HAS HAPPENED SINCE THE MID-MORNING UPDATE
Many damaging wind reports have come in since this morning, which was the main threat to begin with. Since the mid-morning update, 6 more tornadoes were reported in the Atlanta area, including 1 fatality. The man who died was in a mobile home when the tornado hit. Also in Bartow County, Georgia, Adairsville Emergency Management confirmed that 100 cars had rolled over as strong winds and possible tornadoes came through that area near exit 306 on Interstate 75. Also 4 miles southeast of Calhoun, in Gordon county, Georgia, 8 people were injured, 7 poultry homes were destroyed, and power lines were down from a possible tornado in the area.
Tornado Watch #21 remains in effect until 8:00 PM EST for areas near Dothan, Montgomery, and Auburn Alabama, Columbus, Macon, Atlanta, and Athens, Georgia, Anderson and Greenville, South Carolina, and Asheville and Charlotte, North Carolina. While there is still a moderate threat for tornadoes, strong straight line winds remain the biggest concern. Given where the line is at the current moment, areas near Dothan will be in the line of thunderstorms for a few more minutes, then Alabama will be completely clear. If you are in Atlanta and points northwest of Atlanta, the severe weather threat is gone. Macon, Athens, Greenville, and Charlotte, the storms are going to hit you here within a few hours.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #22 remains in effect until 10:00 PM EST for areas near Mount Airy, North Carolina and Roanoke, Virginia. Strong winds are the main threat, and up here the storms may be slightly elevated, along with lower dewpoint values. Therefore, the tornado threat up in this area is low to non-existent.
Flash Flooding is a threat with these storms still. This may be the last update until tomorrow, as the severe storm risk continues to die down.
Stay Safe.
UPDATE: AT LEAST 2 OF THE 7 TORNADOES REPORTED NEAR ATLANTA DID PRODUCE A TORNADO. THE ADAIRSVILLE TORNADO WAS A LARGE WEDGE TORNADO, AND DID INDEED CAUSE DAMAGE IN THE CITY. WATCH THE VIDEO IN THE FOLLOWING LINK TO SEE THE TORNADO COME THROUGH ADAIRSVILLE.
http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/01/30/16766531-tornado-rips-through-georgia-city-as-storms-wreak-havoc-in-the-south
Many damaging wind reports have come in since this morning, which was the main threat to begin with. Since the mid-morning update, 6 more tornadoes were reported in the Atlanta area, including 1 fatality. The man who died was in a mobile home when the tornado hit. Also in Bartow County, Georgia, Adairsville Emergency Management confirmed that 100 cars had rolled over as strong winds and possible tornadoes came through that area near exit 306 on Interstate 75. Also 4 miles southeast of Calhoun, in Gordon county, Georgia, 8 people were injured, 7 poultry homes were destroyed, and power lines were down from a possible tornado in the area.
Flash Flooding is a threat with these storms still. This may be the last update until tomorrow, as the severe storm risk continues to die down.
Stay Safe.
UPDATE: AT LEAST 2 OF THE 7 TORNADOES REPORTED NEAR ATLANTA DID PRODUCE A TORNADO. THE ADAIRSVILLE TORNADO WAS A LARGE WEDGE TORNADO, AND DID INDEED CAUSE DAMAGE IN THE CITY. WATCH THE VIDEO IN THE FOLLOWING LINK TO SEE THE TORNADO COME THROUGH ADAIRSVILLE.
http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/01/30/16766531-tornado-rips-through-georgia-city-as-storms-wreak-havoc-in-the-south
Mid-Morning Update
WHAT HAS HAPPENED THIS MORNING
There were supercell thunderstorms across Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Illinois this morning well ahead of the main squall line. While hail reports are few and far between as expected, the tornado threat seems to have been over forecasted. While this does show flaws in the system, it is better for the meteorologists at the Storm Prediction Center to be safe than sorry. However, over 300 straight line damaging wind reports have been made since yesterday, and in Kentucky, the straight line winds actually destroyed several homes.
WHAT TO EXPECT THE REST OF THE DAY
While the tornado threat appears to be rapidly diminishing, straight line winds will be associated with the squall line all the way to the East Coast. Here are the current watches below.
There were supercell thunderstorms across Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Illinois this morning well ahead of the main squall line. While hail reports are few and far between as expected, the tornado threat seems to have been over forecasted. While this does show flaws in the system, it is better for the meteorologists at the Storm Prediction Center to be safe than sorry. However, over 300 straight line damaging wind reports have been made since yesterday, and in Kentucky, the straight line winds actually destroyed several homes.
WHAT TO EXPECT THE REST OF THE DAY
While the tornado threat appears to be rapidly diminishing, straight line winds will be associated with the squall line all the way to the East Coast. Here are the current watches below.
Tornado Watches #17, 18, and 19 are in effect for central and southern Alabama, central and norther Georgia, and eastern Tennessee and Kentucky. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #20 is in effect for western Virginia, central West Virginia, and southwestern Pennsylvania, where the tornado threat is more minimal.
Flash Flooding is also expected to be a major concern in all these areas, as 2-4 inches of rain in a couple of hours can cause sewer systems to back up into the streets. The main flash flooding concern at this point exists in Jefferson, Clay, Cleburne, Calhoun, St. Clair, and Talladega counties in east central Alabama, where Flash Flood Warnings are currently in effect. The potential for flash flooding will continue to move eastward with the storm system today. Right now the line has pretty much passed through Mississippi and west Alabama, and should be out of Alabama completely by about 5:00 PM CST. If you come across a flooded road, turn around and find a different way to your destination when traveling. It is nearly impossible to estimate how high the water is and it only takes to feet of moving water to sink a vehicle.
Next update will be between 2:00 and 4:00 PM CST. Until then, stay safe.
Morning Weather Update
Here is your morning update on the squall line/tornado outbreak at the moment. Despite what seemed like a pretty good chance that there would be a moderate risk for severe storms, the 7:00 AM Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook still maintains a slight risk for Alabama, Georgia, far southern Mississippi, the Florida Panhandle, eastern parts of Kentucky, Tennessee, and Ohio, the Carolinas, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and southern Pennsylvania.
As you can see by the tornado threat indicator (sorry if it's hard to see very well), there is a 10% chance of a tornado in central and east-central Alabama, as well as far western Georgia, including the city of Atlanta.
As of right now, there have been 4 preliminary tornado reports across yesterday's moderate risk area, and a total of about 300 wind reports.
CURRENT SEVERE STORM ALERTS
Tornado Watches currently exist for much of the slight risk area for today.
Tornado Warnings for Marion, Bledsoe, and Sequatchie Counties in southeastern Tennessee
Tornado Warnings for Central Fulton, Douglas, Southwestern Cobb, and Southeastern Paulding Counties in Georgia. This includes the city of Atlanta.
If any more updates are made this morning, it will likely be between 10:00-11:00 AM CST.
As of right now, there have been 4 preliminary tornado reports across yesterday's moderate risk area, and a total of about 300 wind reports.
CURRENT SEVERE STORM ALERTS
Tornado Warnings for Marion, Bledsoe, and Sequatchie Counties in southeastern Tennessee
Tornado Warnings for Central Fulton, Douglas, Southwestern Cobb, and Southeastern Paulding Counties in Georgia. This includes the city of Atlanta.
If any more updates are made this morning, it will likely be between 10:00-11:00 AM CST.
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Tornado Watch #13
Tornado Watch #13 until 4:00 CT for parts of Tennessee and Mississippi. This includes Nashville, Jackson, Tupelo, Columbus, Starkville, and Jackson.
If there's any good news from all of this severe weather, it's that at this point, none of the Tornado Watches issued since the start of the outbreak this morning have been PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) watches . This could mean that, even with an elevated risk, the chance for large tornadoes has been somewhat low.
The likelihood of severe risks are highlighted by the SPC in this watch as follows:
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The tornado risk is still there, but now it seems like severe wind is going to be the main issue. Stay alert to the weather tonight, though.
Tornado Watch #12
Tornado Watch #12 until 5:00ET for the areas above in red. This includes the cities of Paducah, Terre Haute, Evansville, and Louisville as the squall line pushes eastward.
1/29/13-1/30/13 TORNADO OUTBREAK INFORMATION
AS OF ABOUT 9:00 PM CST
A late January tornado outbreak is currently underway in deep South. The Storm Prediction Center has had a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms for eastern Arkansas, northwestern Mississippi, western Tennessee, western Kentucky, southern Illinois, southeastern Missouri, and northern Louisiana. There are individual supercell thunderstorms forming in Arkansas and Louisiana on the south side of a squall line that goes up into Missouri and Illinois. As of 9:06 PM CST, there were 2 reports of tornadoes, one near the Arkansas/Oklahoma border in Crawford County and one in Warren County, Missouri. While tornadoes are one of the main threats, many areas are expected to see heavy rain, which could lead to flooding, and damaging straight line winds in excess of 70 mph.
WHAT TO EXPECT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
Tornado warnings are really beginning to fire right now across Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois. These storms are going to move eastward overnight, causing more tornadoes, strong winds, and heavy rain for Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky. Things should settle down in these areas by morning, but damage, tornado damage or straight line wind damage, will be wide spread across these areas.
GULF AND THE EAST COAST
Individual cells may form in front of the main squall line. Right now there is only a slight risk for severe storms across the Gulf Coast and East Coast for tomorrow, but more than likely that will change. The same threats from tonight's storms will be with the storms tomorrow as they cross Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, the Carolinas, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Maryland, and Delaware. Things should be done by tomorrow night, and damage assessment and clean up will be in full force.
WHAT TO BE AWARE OF RIGHT NOW
NOAA Weather Radio in the Memphis area is currently experiencing technical difficulties at the current time. Please have a back up option of getting the warnings.(NO SIRENS!!!!!!!!!!!!)
NWS Radar for the Shreveport, LA coverage area is down for dual-polarization upgrade. This could make the warning process more difficult for areas relying on this radar.
Tornado Watches are in effect for most of Arkansas, North Louisiana, far western Kentucky and Tennessee, and for small chunks of Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois, and Mississippi. Be aware of rapidly changing weather conditions and head to a sturdy storm shelter if a tornado warning is issued.
A late January tornado outbreak is currently underway in deep South. The Storm Prediction Center has had a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms for eastern Arkansas, northwestern Mississippi, western Tennessee, western Kentucky, southern Illinois, southeastern Missouri, and northern Louisiana. There are individual supercell thunderstorms forming in Arkansas and Louisiana on the south side of a squall line that goes up into Missouri and Illinois. As of 9:06 PM CST, there were 2 reports of tornadoes, one near the Arkansas/Oklahoma border in Crawford County and one in Warren County, Missouri. While tornadoes are one of the main threats, many areas are expected to see heavy rain, which could lead to flooding, and damaging straight line winds in excess of 70 mph.
WHAT TO EXPECT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
Tornado warnings are really beginning to fire right now across Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois. These storms are going to move eastward overnight, causing more tornadoes, strong winds, and heavy rain for Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky. Things should settle down in these areas by morning, but damage, tornado damage or straight line wind damage, will be wide spread across these areas.
GULF AND THE EAST COAST
Individual cells may form in front of the main squall line. Right now there is only a slight risk for severe storms across the Gulf Coast and East Coast for tomorrow, but more than likely that will change. The same threats from tonight's storms will be with the storms tomorrow as they cross Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, the Carolinas, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Maryland, and Delaware. Things should be done by tomorrow night, and damage assessment and clean up will be in full force.
WHAT TO BE AWARE OF RIGHT NOW
NOAA Weather Radio in the Memphis area is currently experiencing technical difficulties at the current time. Please have a back up option of getting the warnings.(NO SIRENS!!!!!!!!!!!!)
NWS Radar for the Shreveport, LA coverage area is down for dual-polarization upgrade. This could make the warning process more difficult for areas relying on this radar.
Tornado Watches are in effect for most of Arkansas, North Louisiana, far western Kentucky and Tennessee, and for small chunks of Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois, and Mississippi. Be aware of rapidly changing weather conditions and head to a sturdy storm shelter if a tornado warning is issued.
Tornado Safety
The first major tornado outbreak of the new year is under way. The storm threat will continue to move east overnight, and more tornadoes are possible. So what should you do if you happen to fall under a Tornado Warning?
1. You need to have a way of getting a warning. There are several ways to get the warnings, including through NOAA Weather Radio, through smartphone apps such as iMap Weather Radio, and through TV and Internet. The official weather service site is also a good spot to get severe weather updates. weather.gov
Above all else, though, DO NOT RELY ON THE SIRENS. Sirens will oftentimes go off for whole counties, even if most of the county isn't included in a warning. Sirens main target is people outside, and if you're inside sleeping at 3AM, relying on the sirens is ridiculous. You won't hear them going off, and it may be too late if and when you do wake up and hear them.
2. When you take cover: Get to the lowest floor of your house. If you have a basement, excellent, if not, ground level will usually be fine. Get away from windows, and go to an interior room, a bathroom, or under the stairs, or a closet. Get out of mobile homes and cars. Mobile homes will be knocked over by even weak, EF0 tornadoes, and cars will be moved or thrown off the road by most tornadoes. If you are in a large building with a high roof, like a Walmart, get to the bathrooms. Even away from windows, the center of the store will provide little protection, as the roof could cave in and trap you. In apartments, hotels, etc., get to ground level and take cover in the hallways. If you have a ground level apartment, you could go take shelter in a windowless place in your apartment, such as a bathroom.
3. If you have helmets (bike/motorcycle, football, etc.), put them on. If you have kids, put helmets on them first. The helmets may look silly, but will protect your head from flying tornado debris.
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